How we make and check the forecast
The rules behind the forecast. Results for your zone are available on request.
The forecast
Each morning at about 10:30 CET a model forecasts every 15-minute interval of the next local day (tomorrow) for every zone: the median and a 10–90 % range. The file for each zone and delivery day is never overwritten.
Stored before the auction
Every run is archived when it runs: its inputs, the raw weather responses, the output, the time each input was read and a SHA-256 hash of every file, in a hash-chained index. A day counts only if the archive is complete and unchanged, no input came from the future, the forecast was created before 12:00 CET on the day before delivery, and the archived output is byte-for-byte the forecast we check.
How we check it
We compare the forecast with the prices that cleared, interval by interval, and with the free benchmark “same as yesterday” — the actual price at the same local time one day earlier.
Battery calculator
The yearly figure is a simulation (backtest) for a 1 MW / 2 MWh battery, 88 % round-trip efficiency, 10 € per MWh wear: the best plan from our forecast vs the best plan from yesterday’s prices, both settled at actual prices. Day-ahead only, before fees. It is shown only for zones with a full-year simulation.